HF-radio-blackout footprint of the current solar flare, from NOAA D-RAP — sunlit side only.
Dayside tint = current HF tier: yellow sunlit & quiet ·
dark orange watch · light red warning ·
dark red severe.
Space-weather impacts
NOAA R / S / G scales · plain language
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How this forecast is built
Three independent sources, ensembled
Source
P(C+) 24h
P(M+) 24h
P(X) 24h
Model skill scorecard
Benchmark score vs. real operational skill — with 95% confidence intervals
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Model
Benchmark TSS (frozen thr.)
Real operational TSS (frozen thr.)
Overstatement (95% CI)
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Live SHARP model
Per-region P(M+) from JSOC magnetic data · our own ML
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Model:Test a past date (UTC):(definitive archive from May 2010; leave untouched & refresh for live "now" via the near-real-time feed)
Active region
P(M+ 24h)
Risk band
Operating point is recall-maximizing, not precision-tuned — expect many Low/Moderate flags per active region.